CROP AND WEATHER REPORT
For the Two-Week Period Ending November 5, 2013
GENERAL WEATHER FOR THIS AREA: The weather has been challenging during the past two weeks with respect to harvest. Temperatures have been mostly below average with several small rain events. Fortunately, there was not enough rain to really stop harvest, but at the same time, it was enough to be an obstacle to work around. Many producers were combining corn and then switched over to soybean harvest to finish by October 28th, before it rained the next day. We received a couple of overnight showers thereafter, which would slow harvest down in the morning, but then it would clear up enough to combine for the balance of the day. Fortunately, it cleared up on November 1st-3rd, which allowed many producers to wrap up harvest before scattered showers set in again November 4th. Southwestern Minnesota received its first significant snowfall on November 5-6th, with most of our territory receiving 2-4 inches of snow, while 60-70 miles to the northwest of Windom received 10-11 inches of snow.
Soil temperatures have dropped into the low 40s. This has allowed anhydrous ammonium to be applied for next year's corn crop. With the moisture we have received during the past few weeks, fall tillage is working as well as it has in several years. As you may recall, the last couple of fall seasons, tillage was difficult because of the dry soil conditions. This year, that is not the case and it is nice to see moisture being added to the soil profile before freeze-up. That being said, with the delays in harvest, there is still a great deal of tillage still to be completed yet this fall.
SOYBEANS: We were finally able to complete soybean harvest on October 28th. Many of the late planted and replanted soybeans in the low-lying areas were the last to be harvested. Most of these soybeans were around 14% moisture, but some were still close to 20%. Overall, soybean yields were better than we anticipated, as yields were 10-20% above our September 1st yield estimates. Rainfall in August/September added to seed size, which ultimately seemed to be the biggest factor in obtaining above average yields. Although yields were very good, it appears that we have more yield potential to strive for in the future. Yield monitors were reaching 75-90 bushels per acre in some spots in fields this fall, which is some of the highest peak yields we have observed. It will be interesting to see if the soybean industry will be able to make strides to achieve more of this higher yield potential in the future.
Soybean combining wrapped up for the most part on October 28th. This is some of the latest soybean harvest we have observed in years. That being said, many of the beans were still running over 50 bushel per acre in some of these fields.
CORN: Corn harvest has progressed nicely during the past two weeks. It is amazing how these newer combines can continue to harvest, despite some wet conditions. Ten years ago, a couple tenths of rain would stop harvest for the balance of the day. Now, the combines can continue to shell out corn despite wet stalks and leaves going through the machine. That is why some of these newer combines can cost $300,000 to $500,000. Some combines can now harvest 20-25+ acres per hour, which means that 160 acres can be harvested in an 8-hour day. Most of the newer combines now also chop the stalks as it cuts the corn, which takes a lot more horsepower, but also eliminates another field operation in preparation for the next year's crop. Overall, corn moisture has not decreased at all in the last 2-3 weeks, with most 98-103 day corn at about 18-20% moisture and 105+ day corn at 20-22%. This is still much better than the 24-26% moisture corn that we feared at the beginning of September. Corn drying will likely range from $50-$75 per acre, but certainly less than $100 per acre. Corn yields have been variable, with yields ranging from 150-200+ bushels per acre. Most of the higher end yields were in locations that had the most rainfall this year.
We are fortunate, as all of our client's corn has been harvested. However, when driving through the region, it would appear that about 10-15% of the corn is still standing in the field. As of November 4th, only 73% of the corn in Minnesota, as well as in the nation, has been harvested (National Ag Statistics Service- 11/4/13). The recent snowfall will delay progress this week.
Corn harvest has concluded for our clients. Overall, corn yields were variable. As you can see here, weather does not stop these newer combines, even through light rain and snow they can still continue to harvest the corn.
REMARKS: The grain markets continue to drift lower, as cash corn prices are near $4 per bushel and soybeans around $12.25 per bushel. It would appear that we will reach a harvest low soon, as it might be when the monthly US Supply and Demand Report is released from USDA on November 8th. It is anticipated that estimated national corn production could be near 160 bushels per acre, or 14 billion bushels, which would be close to record levels, thus would be detrimental to corn price and likely pull soybean prices down as well. Corn exports and ethanol use has been above average, so it will be interesting if USDA will adjust the demand side of the balance sheet as well. The USDA Report will set the tone in the markets for the balance of 2013 going into 2014.
The USDA/FSA has begun to release payments to producers during the past two weeks, which were delayed because of the government shutdown. CRP payments were made first and direct payments are starting to arrive. The CRP payments are at 100% of the amount in the contract. Direct payments have been affected by the government's sequestration, as these payments have been cut 8.6% from the original contracts. For a standard farming unit, that equates to about a $2/acre reduction in farm program payments.
We have certainly appreciated the farm operators' efforts in wrapping up this year's harvest. There have been some very long days and weeks during the past month. Considering we did not really begin planting until May and begin harvesting until October, it has been a challenging, but another bountiful year. Now that we have completed harvest, we are still very busy in gathering harvest data, processing grain sales and corn drying bills, organizing fall fertilizer application and tillage, coordinating fall tile projects, wrapping up custom expenses, purchasing seed for 2014, processing farm program payments, and will be making final preparations for year-end closing in the next 4-6 weeks. We will be mailing out to our clients their Harvest Reports with final yields around the end of November/early December. It has been another very successful year and we appreciate you following along throughout the 2013 growing season.
2-4+ inches of snow fell throughout much of Southwestern Minnesota on November 5th. There are still a few cornfields that need to be combined and a fair amount of tillage to be completed. We anticipate the snow will melt and we will see harvest and tillage be finished in the coming weeks.
Corn Growing Degree Days are calculated by subtracting a 50 degree base temperature from the average of the maximum and minimum temperature for the day. The daily maximum is limited to 86 degrees and the minimum is 50 degrees.
May 16, 2013 TO DATE INDICATED
TOTAL GROWING DEGREE DAYS
DEPARTURE, FROM NORMAL
|LOCATION|| || || |
October 20, 2013
October 20, 2013
Grain Markets (November 6, 2013)
|Current Crop|| || || || |
|January|| || || || |
RAINFALL FOR TWO WEEK PERIOD
MARCH 1 TO DATE-2013
MARCH 1 TO DATE-2012
Klay D. Walinga, AFM
Manager - Farm Services Department
Real Estate Broker
E-mail us at: email@example.com